Deal or no Deal? .... JSE performance for year .... Billiton

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Derek  3 Dec 2018

Good Morning,

International:
The US Stocks finished higher as optimism mounted over a potential US – China trade deal? Can Trump be trusted? A 3 month US-China trade truce was concluded while talks continue. On this news the Asia-Pacific stocks jumped this morning.

The S&P500 is now touching the 200 day moving average (red line) with the current rally. It needs to break this line before we can say it is out of a Bear Market.



Caterpillar broke its flag and the 50 day moving average. It also managed to move out of a red trend factor again.



After going sideways for 8 weeks between resistance lines, Pfizer broke top resistance.




JSE Technical:
The opposite happened at the JSE where every share was just sold on fear of a no Trade-War deal.

Please take note that Billiton’s name and code has changed. BHP now and not BIL anymore. You need to update your watchlists. While I am showing this chart, notice the divergence that is in place.



The property sector on the JSE is lagging the most since the Steinhoff scare. I think the perception (my believe) out there is that their capital values are inflated. Intu Properties was going to be sold, but when the deal did not go through, it fell more than 40% in one week. Notice the red trend factor, warning you to stay away.



The JSE is not a friendly market to be in currently. If we do not get a Santa rally, all local funds are going to look pretty sick. The JSE Overall is -14.8% so far this year compared with the +3.15% of the S&P500. The Santa rally usually happens as institutions want to show a better return for the year than the current situation. It will need a lot of fire to make the JSE look better! Hopefully the truce deal will give a spark.

While the JSE had a scary day, lets show Tencent. Both the HangSeng and Tencent opened with a gap and broke long term trend lines on the truce deal. I zoomed out quite a bit to show the long term trend line, so the gap might not be so visable.



You must enjoy your day.
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