Performances for 2018 .... Questions that will influence 2019

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Derek  3 Jan 2019

Good Morning,

All the best for the new year and may we help you to make it a profitable 2019.

2018 was not a great year for investors as it was hi-jacked by the US/China Trade-War. The economists say that we are now 4 years in a row poorer!

From High to Low of 2018: S&P500:-20% JSE:-18%
January start to low of 2018: S&P500: -12% JSE:-15%
Year performance: S&P500:-6% JSE:-11%

Notice that the S&P500 managed to climb back 6% from the low in December.

Immediate questions that will influence the markets this year are:
Will the US / China Trade-War escalate in 2019?
What will the FED do with interest rates?
Is Trump going to be impeached? ( I read that the style of Trump is the same as Zuma's)
How will Brexit play out?
Will SA be downgraded further?
And many more!

What are you as a investor going to do to counter this uncertainties in 2019? As we do not know the answers, we will stay with technical analysis to help us make educated decisions. As you can see from the performances, long term investments are risky too as markets have become much more volatile. Zoclee tries to concentrate on medium term investments on the JSE and S&P500, and all the indicators in the TradeFX software are geared for medium term investments.

The year kicked off with poor data from China indicating a slowing in growth. That pulled all the indices down. The US managed to climb back, but now the futures sink after Apple cuts forecast sales. A stormy start as you can see.

Let’s look at the turn of the S&P500. Everything happened on the same day. We were in deep oversold territory according to the HeatMaps (Dark Green). FrontRunner Broke up, the MACD changed from a red bar to a green bar and the negative trend line was broken with a large green candle.

The graph of Bank of America looks much the same as the S&P 500. After the double top correction it turned in deep oversold territory. Notice that the trend factor went into dark red and managed to get back to a light red now, still not positive!

JSE Technical:

The JSE was also influenced by all the news mentioned earlier and opened the new year negatively.

Billiton was one of the few shares that closed positively for 2018. Notice the divergence as it broke down on the first day of trading in 2019.

Buckle up for 2019, it may be more bumpy than 2018 looking at the start.
You must enjoy your day.
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