3 Scenarios for Trade-War deal .... Sell in March and ....

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Derek  13 May 2019

Good morning,

International:
One of the Banks predicted 3 scenarios for the Trade-War:
1 A successful deal is made – S&P500 surge to 3 000.
2 Dead line gets extended – S&P500 drops to 2 750
3 No deal – S&P500 drops to 2700 (Drop looks too small compared to scenario 2 deal?)

It is also expected that we will have a slim weekly gain as trade battle escalates. Then another tweet from Trump, like last weekend, could change it all. Well it did happen, Trump made new threats agains China the weekend.

Enough of all the speculation, let’s see what the technical indicators are showing for the S&P500. After being in negative territory all day, the S&P500 lifted its head in late trading to close positively. Although all the indicators are in oversold territory, FrontRunner did not break up yet, nor do we have a green MACD bar.



Sometimes it is difficult to draw a trend line. It happens when a share drops so fast that it is well below the EMA8 line. You can see this on the graph of Berkshire Hathaway. I did draw a trend line that does not make much sense, as it is too far away from the EMA8 line.



The graph of Colgate-Palmolive looks much better. The trend line and EMA8 line meets and both are broken. FrontRunner broke up and we have a green MACD bar.




JSE Technical:
The JSE lifted its head slightly as the election is out of the way.

I could not help but notice the Head and Shoulder formation of PSG. We are in oversold territory now.



Most of the share graphs look like Exxaro's graph: On support and touching the negative trend line.



Remember, markets do not like uncertainty .... be careful while the Trade-War deal is not finalised .... and who says it will be finalised?
Gold’s message to investors: “Sell in March and buy in September”!

Enjoy your day.
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